No, Trump Hasn’t Slapped 100% Tariffs on India — Yet

President Donald Trump with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. A bill authorizing 100% tariffs on India over Russian oil purchases is headed to Trump's desk — but nothing is imposed until he signs it and acts. Credit: Official White House Photo, via Wikimedia Commons (public domain).

Scroll Indian social media this week and you would think the hammer has already fallen: "100% US tariffs on India." It has not. Not yet, anyway. The truth is more specific — and, for India's exporters, still alarming.

What actually happened: the U.S. House of Representatives passed the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 on Wednesday, September 16, by 262 to 159. The bill authorizes President Donald Trump to impose tariffs of up to 100% on the biggest buyers of Russian oil and gas — including India. It does not impose them. Two more steps have to happen first: Trump has to sign the bill into law, and then he has to decide to use the tariff power it gives him.

A White House official told The Hindu on Thursday that Trump plans to sign. So the authority is likely coming. But the tariffs themselves remain a presidential decision — and, as India is pointing out, a decision with costs on both sides.

What happened, step by step

The Senate passed the bill first, 86–11, on August 7, 2026 — an overwhelming bipartisan margin for a measure named after the late Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, one of its principal architects. The House cleared its amended version on September 16 with 203 Republicans, 58 Democrats and one Independent voting yes; seven Republicans and 152 Democrats voted no, with Democratic opposition centered on the sheer breadth of the tariff powers being handed to the president.

Now the bill heads to Trump's desk. The legislation gives him explicit authority to waive the sanctions "in the national interest" — the escape valve every American president demands in sanctions bills, and one that matters enormously here, as we will see.

What the bill actually does (and doesn't do)

Here is the precise mechanism, because the headlines have been sloppy about it:

• The tariff power is discretionary, not automatic. Even after signing, no tariff takes effect by itself. Trump would have to make a separate executive decision to impose duties on a given country — and he can also waive the whole thing in the "national interest."
• Five countries are in the crosshairs: China, India, Azerbaijan, Hungary and Slovakia — currently the largest importers of Russian oil and gas.
• There is an exception: countries importing less than 15% of Russia's natural gas exports that have taken significant steps to reduce those purchases get a carve-out.
• The bill is much wider than tariffs: it sanctions Vladimir Putin, Russian oligarchs, senior officials and financial institutions; targets the "shadow fleet" of older and reflagged tankers Russia uses to dodge restrictions; and extends the Iran Sanctions Act of 1996 — which penalizes companies investing in Iran's energy sector — out to 2031.

"To China and India: You better clean up your act. Buy your oil and gas somewhere else," Senator Richard Blumenthal said on the Senate floor. That is the message. The mechanics underneath it are what New Delhi is gaming out.

India's exposure, in numbers

India is the world's second-largest buyer of Russian crude after China, and the numbers explain why Washington picked it:

• India bought $40.8 billion of Russian crude in FY2026 — 30.3% of its total crude imports of $134.7 billion, per the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI).
• By July 2026, Russia accounted for 51% of India's imported crude — dependence that increased through the summer.
• The swing has been violent: the Russian share of Indian oil imports fell to a two-year low in December 2025, then hit an 11-month high in April 2026. In March, Indian refiners nearly doubled Russian crude imports to 2.25 million barrels a day — in the weeks after the U.S.–Iran war erupted, helped by temporary U.S. waivers.

India already pays for the Russian-oil connection. Washington imposed an additional 25% tariff on top of an existing 25% on Indian goods in July–August 2025 over the oil purchases, taking the headline rate to 50% — with exemptions for generic pharmaceuticals, smartphones and some Section 232 goods. A new 100% layer would land on top of that stack for affected products.

India's answer: 1.4 billion people need energy

New Delhi is not capitulating. Responding to the House vote, the Ministry of External Affairs said India "remains firmly committed to ensuring energy security for its 1.4 billion people" through diversified sourcing of energy inputs, "determined according to evolving market forces." The ministry added that India would "protect its trade and economic interests" — and noted the tariff issue "has been discussed at high levels in recent months with various US interlocutors," with the implications "very clearly articulated" by the Indian side.

India has also warned Washington that tariff threats over Russian oil could damage bilateral ties. The logic is straightforward: Moscow is one of New Delhi's oldest strategic partners and its largest military supplier, and discounted Russian crude is what kept India's fuel inflation in check while energy markets convulsed. Note the irony built into the timeline: after the U.S.–Iran conflict began on February 28, Washington itself paused sanctions on Russian oil shipments that were already in transit before March 11 — because global supply was hit. India's refiners bought more Russian crude in that window.

This is not a new argument cycle. Back in January, Trump warned of 500% tariffs on countries buying Russian oil; Indian exporter shares fell sharply on the news, and GTRI warned such a move could virtually shut down India's $120 billion in annual exports to the U.S. The number has since come down from 500 to 100 — but the threat has gotten closer to law.

What happens the day after Trump signs

Signing gives Trump the weapon; it does not fire it. Three paths open up:

1. He imposes the tariffs. The immediate damage would fall on Indian exporters of textiles, leather, gems and jewelry, shrimp and engineering goods — sectors where India competes directly with Vietnam, Bangladesh and Indonesia at far lower U.S. duty rates. The flip side: American consumers and importers absorb the cost too, and India has already shown it will redirect trade — its new UK deal is signed and an EU pact is near.

2. He waives or delays, citing the national interest. The bill's own escape hatch. A waiver becomes far more likely if New Delhi offers something: faster Russian-oil drawdowns, bigger purchases of U.S. crude and LNG (already expanding), or movement on the nearly-final bilateral trade deal.

3. He uses the threat as leverage. This is the pattern so far — tariff pressure to extract energy and trade concessions, the same playbook we graded country by country this week. Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal is expected in the U.S. later this month; that meeting is where the tariff sword meets the trade-deal table.

The honest summary: the "100% tariff" is real legislation with real numbers behind it, but it is a loaded gun, not a fired one. Watch the signing, then watch what Trump does — and what India offers — next.

FAQ

Are 100% tariffs on India in effect now?
No. As of September 18, 2026, the bill has passed both chambers but has not been signed by Trump, and even after signing, the tariffs require a separate presidential decision. Nothing has been imposed.

Would the 100% be on top of the current 50%?
The legislation authorizes tariffs "of up to 100%" — it would create a new legal route for duties on Indian imports over Russian energy purchases. The exact stacking with existing duties would depend on how the executive action is written, but Indian exporters fear the new layer would compound the current 50%.

Why is India on the list?
India is the second-largest buyer of Russian crude after China, and Russia's share of India's imports reached 51% by July 2026. The bill targets the five largest importers of Russian oil and gas: China, India, Azerbaijan, Hungary and Slovakia.

Can Trump choose not to impose them?
Yes. The tariff power is fully discretionary, and the bill includes a national-interest waiver. The White House has said Trump plans to sign the bill; it has not said he will impose the tariffs.

What is India's counter-argument?
Energy security for 1.4 billion people via diversified sourcing; Russian crude kept India's fuel prices stable; Moscow is a core defense partner; and — pointedly — the U.S. itself granted temporary waivers on Russian shipments earlier this year when supplies were disrupted.

Sources: The Hindu (Sept. 17, 2026); Economic Times (Sept. 17, 2026); Times of India (Sept. 17, 2026); Indian Express (Aug. 8, 2026); ANI via Tribune India (Aug. 8, 2026); Gulf News (Sept. 17, 2026); GTRI data via ET; Reuters (July 22, 2026).