Saudi Arabia Asked Trump to Strike the Houthis. He Said No — And Now Both of the World's Oil Lanes Are in Tehran's Grip

A U.S. Navy destroyer engages incoming Houthi missiles in the Red Sea. The Houthis' seizure of Yemen's coastline this month has given Iran a second pressure point alongside the Strait of Hormuz. Credit: U.S. Navy, via Wikimedia Commons (public domain).

Here is the situation in the Middle East right now, stated plainly: the United States is six months into a war with Iran, Iran's Houthi allies just seized Yemen's entire Red Sea coastline, Saudi Arabia's key oil pipeline has been shut down after a drone attack, oil is above $108 a barrel, and Riyadh asked President Donald Trump to order U.S. strikes on the Houthis — and he said no.

That last detail, reported by Reuters this week from regional sources, is the hinge everything else turns on. Gulf capitals are now openly calculating that Washington may not rescue them — and that negotiating with Tehran might be a matter of self-preservation.

Two chokepoints, one Iranian hand

The war began in February, when the U.S. launched what the Pentagon calls Operation Epic Fury against Iran. In response, Tehran moved to disrupt traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which a fifth of the world's oil once flowed. Shipping firms rerouted through the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait — the alternative lane between Yemen and Djibouti.

Then the Houthis closed that workaround. Last week, the Iran-aligned movement seized the southwestern port city of Mocha and, over the following days, took control of Yemen's entire Red Sea coastline and the strategic Hanish islands near Bab el-Mandeb. The advance, according to Yemeni government, Iranian and regional sources who spoke to Reuters, came with direct guidance from Iran's Revolutionary Guards — senior commanders traveled to Yemen to oversee attacks directed at Saudi Arabia, and Tehran told the Houthis to escalate while promising more funding, weapons and officers. Iran publicly denies giving the Houthis military direction.

The numbers show the squeeze is working. Commodity-vessel traffic through Bab el-Mandeb fell to eleven ships on a single Sunday — the lowest in months, per Kpler shipping data. Tanker traffic through Hormuz is only now, per TankerTrackers.com, showing "signs of recovery," and remains far below normal.

Saudi Arabia is now taking hits at home

The cost is landing directly on American ally Saudi Arabia. Early Tuesday, Houthi ballistic missiles and drones struck civilian areas in three Saudi cities — Khamis Mushait, Abha and Taif — injuring 13 civilians and damaging seven homes and two vehicles, according to the Saudi-led coalition. Riyadh warned it will react "firmly" to the attacks.

Worse for Riyadh: it had rerouted much of its crude through Red Sea ports to bypass Hormuz, only to have that fallback attacked too. After a Friday drone strike, the kingdom temporarily shut its 1,200-kilometer (746-mile) East–West pipeline, which carries oil across the Arabian Peninsula. Brent crude futures jumped more than $3 to $108.23 a barrel on the news; West Texas Intermediate climbed to $103.20. Analysts warn that continued disruption could tip the global economy toward recession, with tens of millions pushed toward hunger.

And for American drivers, the pain is already visible: U.S. diesel hit a record $6.23 a gallon over the weekend, per GasBuddy — a figure Trump himself has linked to the wars (he blames Ukraine's strikes on Russian refineries more than Iran).

The war America is already paying for — and running short of ammo for

Here is a number that should concentrate minds in Washington: the Pentagon's own inspector general revealed Monday that Operation Epic Fury cost an estimated $33.4 billion between February 28 and June 30 alone — $22.3 billion of it in expended munitions — and that the United States now faces an ammunition shortfall as a result. The finding came in a first-of-its-kind mandatory report to Congress.

That is the backdrop against which Trump's refusal to strike the Houthis at Riyadh's request lands. It is also the backdrop to a remarkable diplomatic picture painted this week by Al Jazeera and Reuters:

• U.S. officials met Houthi representatives at the U.S. embassy in Muscat over the weekend, with Oman organizing. The Houthis said they did not intend to attack American vessels and remained committed to their 2025 ceasefire with Washington — while pledging, notably, to keep targeting Saudi ships.
• A Pakistan-brokered memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran collapsed last month amid mutual accusations of violations. The MoU was supposed to start a 60-day peace-talk window and reopen Hormuz. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said earlier this month Tehran would return to the agreement if Washington did the same.
• Trump now claims direct talks with Iran are underway — diplomacy, per Al Jazeera, may be picking up again.
• An Oman–Iran meeting on the Strait of Hormuz, which Gulf states were to join, was postponed Monday — which one former senior CIA officer, Scott Uehlinger, read as a sign Washington asked for a delay to confer with Riyadh first, fearing the Saudis might otherwise cut their own deal with Tehran.
• Axios reports Trump is expected to meet Gulf leaders on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly next week to discuss the conflict.

What the Gulf is really deciding

Strip away the communiqués and the choice facing Riyadh and its neighbors is the one Reuters' regional sources described bluntly: absorb mounting economic pain and Iranian strikes, or engage with Iran to protect trade, energy flows and economic stability. "The Houthi capture of strategic islands near Bab el-Mandeb is a game changer," Middle East analyst Fawaz Gerges said. "It changes the balance of power and gives them far greater geopolitical and geoeconomic leverage over Saudi Arabia, the Gulf, the United States and global trade."

Uehlinger put Washington's dilemma even more sharply: if the U.S. does not assist Saudi Arabia, Riyadh "may consider itself in its own interests, that it has to reach out a conciliatory hand to Iran, and that's something I think the United States wants to avoid."

This is why Trump's reported "no" matters more than a single targeting decision. It signals to every Gulf capital that the American security guarantee has limits — and that the limits are being drawn while Iran holds both shipping lanes.

Why Americans should care — beyond the pump

This is not a distant regional war. The U.S. is a combatant: $33.4 billion in four months, a munitions shortfall, and an open-ended commitment. Congress's new House-passed Russia sanctions package even authorizes tariffs of up to 100% on countries buying Russian oil — a provision aimed at China and India that directly connects this war to the tariff map we graded this week. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who has vowed "economic D-Day" on Iran, meets his Chinese counterpart He Lifeng this weekend with Iran sanctions on the agenda — ahead of Trump's Sept. 24 summit with Xi Jinping, where Iran will also come up.

The question for the next 72 hours is what Trump tells the Gulf leaders in New York: strikes, a deal, or delay. The Saudis have already told him what they want. The Houthis have told him what they'll keep doing if he says no again.

FAQ

Why do the Houthis matter to oil prices?
About 7% of the world's oil supply moves through the Bab el-Mandeb strait, and far more Asia–Europe cargo passes through en route to the Suez Canal. With Hormuz already choked by the U.S.–Iran war, the Houthi seizure removes the main alternative route. Shippers divert around Africa — longer, pricier — and insurance spikes. Those costs end up in fuel and freight prices everywhere, including the U.S.

What is Operation Epic Fury?
The Pentagon's name for the U.S.-led war against Iran, launched in February 2026. The Defense Department's inspector general disclosed this week that it cost an estimated $33.4 billion from Feb. 28 to June 30, with $22.3 billion spent on expended munitions — producing what the report calls a U.S. ammunition shortfall.

Could Saudi Arabia really make a deal with Iran?
Regional sources told Reuters the option is being weighed seriously: either endure the economic pain or engage Tehran to protect trade and energy flows. Riyadh and Tehran restored diplomatic relations in 2023, so channels exist. The postponed Oman–Iran meeting on Hormuz — which Gulf states were to join — shows the diplomatic track is alive even as missiles fly.

Sources: Reuters (Sept. 10, 13, 2026); USA Today (Sept. 11, 2026); Al Jazeera (Sept. 13, 17, 2026); Gulf News (Sept. 15, 2026); The Hindu/AFP (Sept. 15, 2026); TankerTrackers.com; Kpler shipping data via Arabian Business.